It is rather hard to compete with the computer when doing economic analysis. This is because computers are quite good at doing math once they are programmed, and although economics isn’t an exact science, those who study it, do the research, and use the tools certainly see it as such. Meaning they will use these equations to guestimate the future trends. Nevertheless, just as one can be a technical analyst in the stock market, there is something to be said for the fundamentals, and the black Swan events which change the stock chart trends. Okay so let’s talk about all this for second shall we?
How can a human being compete with a computer that analyzes data in this way when predicting economic trends and doing economic analysis? Well, I would submit to you that one third of the performance of the economy has to do with perception. Perception can come in many forms, and it can also change like the wind. That does not always show up in the data, for instance consumers are fickle, and many of the decisions made by CEOs have to do with government intervention on trade, regulations, and taxation policies.
The data does not always show when a politician is going to come up with a new law which inhibits business, or helps pick winners and losers in the market, or changes the entire dynamics of an industry which has a cascading effect on the rest of the economy. Then there are severe disruption such as natural disasters, wars, and civil unrest. And let’s not forget the increasingly pervasive black swan catastrophic economic events. Bubbles that get blown too big, burst too soon, or hit you like a ton of bricks out of the blue. The data doesn’t always show that, are you beginning to see my point?
That’s where human beings might still have the advantage. Sometimes there are anomalies which are not seen readily in the data, or not recognized for some unforeseen reason. Therefore, humans are still needed for economic analysis.
How can a human being compete with a computer that analyzes data in this way when predicting economic trends and doing economic analysis? Well, I would submit to you that one third of the performance of the economy has to do with perception. Perception can come in many forms, and it can also change like the wind. That does not always show up in the data, for instance consumers are fickle, and many of the decisions made by CEOs have to do with government intervention on trade, regulations, and taxation policies.
The data does not always show when a politician is going to come up with a new law which inhibits business, or helps pick winners and losers in the market, or changes the entire dynamics of an industry which has a cascading effect on the rest of the economy. Then there are severe disruption such as natural disasters, wars, and civil unrest. And let’s not forget the increasingly pervasive black swan catastrophic economic events. Bubbles that get blown too big, burst too soon, or hit you like a ton of bricks out of the blue. The data doesn’t always show that, are you beginning to see my point?
That’s where human beings might still have the advantage. Sometimes there are anomalies which are not seen readily in the data, or not recognized for some unforeseen reason. Therefore, humans are still needed for economic analysis.
Sumber : http://www.artikelberbahasainggris.com/ekonomi/how-to-compete-with-a-computer-in-economic-analysis.html
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